New Pope Betting Odds: Pietro Parolin Leads Favorites, Plus Our AI Prediction

Pietro Parolin (+225) remains the betting favorite by the Vegas new pope odds following the death of Pope Francis, as we await the cardinals' choice of the 267th pontiff of the Catholic church. The conclave is expected to meet in mid-May to begin the process of electing Pope Francis' successor.

Pope Francis passed away Monday morning at the age of 88 following hospitalization more than a month ago due to double pneumonia. Francis served as the 266th pope for 12 years.

The conclave is expected to be held about 15-20 days following Francis' death, when the Roman Catholic cardinals from around the globe will determine the next pope-elect. The process as a whole could last more than a month as up to 135 cardinals have their vote on the new pope.

👉 See our new pope predictions here.

🔢 Odds to be the new pope

Here are the odds for who will be named the next pope. Odds as of Saturday, April 26.

If you're in the U.S., you can make predictions on the next pope via Kalshi's next pope market.

• Pietro Parolin (+225)
• Luis Antonio Tagle (+225)
• Peter Turkson (+500)
• Robert Sarah (+600)
• Matteo Zuppi (+600)
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa (+800)
• Peter Erdo (+1000)
• Kevin Farrell (+1800)
• Jean-Marc Aveline (+1800)
• Reinhard Marx (+2000)
• Mario Grech (+2000)
• Fernando Chomai Garib (+2000)
• Mykola Bychok (+2000)
• Cristobal Lopez Romero (+2000)
• Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (+2200)
• Angelo Scola (+2200)
• Mauro Gambetti (+2500)
• Jean-Claude Hollerich (+2500)
• Raymond Leo Burke (+2500)
• Thomas Aquino Manyo Maeda (+2500)
• Claudio Gugerotti (+2500)
• Joseph W. Tobin (+2500)
• Jose Tolentino Calaca de Mendonca (+2800)
• Timothy Radcliffe (+3300)
• Orani Joao Tempesta (+3300)
• Leopoldo Brenes (+3300)
• Timothy Dolan (+4000)
• Robert Francis Prevost (+4000)
• Konrad Krajewski (+4000)
• Malcolm Ranjith (+4000)
• Anders Arborelius (+4000)
• Charles Maung Bo (+4000)
• Wim Eijk (+5000)
• Michael Czerny (+5000)
• Wilton Gregory (+5000)
• Vincent Nichols (+6600)
• Angelo De Donatis (+6600)
• Antonio Canizares Llovera (+6600)
• Joao Braz de Aviz (+6600)
• Italo Dell'Oro (+6600)
• Francis Arinze (+6600)
• Dominik Duka (+6600)
• Gerald Cyprien Lacroix (+6600)
• Daniel Sturla (+6600)
• Chilby Langlois (+6600)
• Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (+6600)
• Mark Ouellet (+6600)
• Bechara Peter Rai (+6600)
• Jaime Spengler (+6600)
• Sean Patrick O'Malley (+6600)
• Christoph Schonborn (+6600)
• Odilo Pedro Scherer (+6600)
• Mauro Piacenza (+8000)
• Carlo Maria Vigano (+8000)

📰 Latest news on the search for the next pope

The Catholic Church is preparing for the conclave to elect the 267th pope, following the death of Pope Francis on April 21. The funeral is scheduled for Saturday, April 26, after which the conclave is expected to commence between May 6 and May 12.

Conclave details:

• Electors: Out of 252 cardinals, 135 are under the age of 80 and eligible to vote.
• Voting process: A two-thirds majority (at least 90 votes) is required to elect the new pope.

Key contenders:

• Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy): Vatican Secretary of State, considered a frontrunner.
• Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines): Pro-Prefect for the Dicastery for Evangelization, representing the growing Catholic population in Asia.
• Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk (Netherlands): Known for his traditional views.
• Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea): Respected for his conservative theological stance.
• Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith (Sri Lanka): Archbishop of Colombo, noted for his liturgical conservatism.

Betting markets: Betting platforms have seen increased activity, with Cardinal Parolin emerging as the favorite at 2-1 odds. Other contenders include Cardinals Tagle and Timothy Radcliffe. Despite ethical concerns, betting on papal elections has historical precedent.

🏆 Who is the most likely to be the next pope?

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy)

• Age: 70
• Vatican Secretary of State (akin to a prime minister)
• Deeply experienced in Church governance and diplomacy
• More of a centrist, with traditional backing
• Odds: +225

👥 Other top contenders

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

• Age: 67
• Former Manila archbishop and current Pro-Prefect of Evangelization
• Charismatic, global appeal, strong communicator
• Considered a Francis-style progressive from the Global South
• Odds: +225

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy)

• Age: 69
• Current Role: Archbishop of Bologna; President of the Italian Bishops’ Conference
• Why He’s a Frontrunner:
• Strong pastoral and diplomatic reputation
• Deep alignment with Pope Francis’ emphasis on peace, mercy, and inclusion
• Seen as a unifying figure who can appeal to both reformers and traditionalists
• Has led Vatican peace efforts in Ukraine and elsewhere
• Odds: +600

🗳️ How is the new pope chosen?

A new pope is chosen through a centuries-old process called a papal conclave, which takes place after the death or resignation of the current pope. The conclave is expected to meet in mid-May to begin selecting the 267th pope.

To help you know how to bet on the next pope, here's a breakdown of how it works:

1. Vacancy of the papacy

• The process begins when the papacy becomes vacant—either due to the pope’s death or resignation (as in the case of Pope Benedict XVI in 2013)

2. Conclave of cardinals

• The College of Cardinals - the body of senior church officials - gathers in Rome
• Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote. As of now, that’s usually around 120 cardinals

3. Secrecy and isolation

• The conclave takes place in the Sistine Chapel. Cardinals are sequestered from the outside world - no phones, media, or contact allowed
• They take an oath of secrecy, and the entire process is highly confidential

4. Voting

• Voting occurs in rounds. Each cardinal writes down the name of one man they believe should be pope (he must be male and Catholic - usually a cardinal, but technically any Catholic man is eligible)
• A candidate needs a two-thirds majority to be elected pope
• After each round, the ballots are burned:
• If no pope is chosen, black smoke appears from the chapel’s chimney
• If a new pope is elected, white smoke signals success

5. Acceptance and announcement

• The elected cardinal is asked: “Do you accept your canonical election as Supreme Pontiff?” If he says yes, he chooses a papal name
• The senior cardinal deacon then steps onto the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica and announces: “Habemus Papam” (We have a pope)

6. The new pope appears

• The new pope steps out and gives his first blessing, known as Urbi et Orbi ("to the city and the world")

🤖 AI prediction for the new pope

We've previously used ChatGPT to predict its March Madness bracket and Super Bowl picks, and we're once again turning to OpenAI's popular chatbot to predict the next pope.

We trained ChatGPT's latest and most advanced AI model to study the papal candidates, history, and relevant trends before predicting the 267th pope.

🔮 Updated prediction: Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines)

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
Estimated Probability: ~27%
Current Odds: +225 (30.77%)

Why Tagle?

• Global representation: As a Filipino, Tagle would be the first Asian pope, reflecting the Church's growing presence in Asia
• Pastoral approach: Known for his humility and connection with the faithful, he embodies the pastoral spirit of Pope Francis
• Experience: Currently serving as the pro-prefect for the Dicastery for Evangelization, he has significant experience within the Vatican

🌍 Emerging consensus

The conclave's outcome is challenging to predict due to its secretive nature and the diverse backgrounds of the electors. While Tagle's pastoral approach and global representation make him a strong candidate, factors such as internal Church politics and regional alliances will significantly influence the decision.

🕊️ Papal name of the next pope

A papal name is the new name a pope chooses upon being elected to the papacy. This name becomes his official title as pope and is how he’ll be known throughout his pontificate (i.e., Pope Francis, Pope John Paul II).

Here are the odds for the new pope's chosen names:

🕊️ Why do popes choose a new name?

The tradition began in 533 A.D. when Pope John II (born Mercurius) chose not to keep his pagan birth name. Since then, every pope has adopted a papal name to reflect:

• Spiritual inspiration
• Tribute to a past pope or saint
• The vision or tone for their papacy

✝️ How is the name chosen?

• After being elected in the Sistine Chapel, the new pope is asked, "By what name shall you be called?"
• He chooses the name immediately - sometimes spontaneously, sometimes long-considered
• The Cardinal Protodeacon then announces the new name from the balcony with the iconic “Habemus Papam” ("We have a pope")

📜 Examples & meanings

• Pope Francis (2013): Chose the name in honor of St. Francis of Assisi, symbolizing humility and care for the poor
• Pope John Paul II: Honored his predecessor John Paul I and emphasized continuity
• Pope Benedict XVI: Evoked Benedict XV, a peace-seeking pope during WWI, and St. Benedict, founder of Western monasticism

📅 When will the next pope be chosen?

The next pope will be chosen during the upcoming papal conclave, which will likely take place within 15 to 20 days following the death of Pope Francis on April 21.

⏳ Timeline to expect:

• April 21: Pope Francis passes away
• Nine days of mourning: The church observes the Novemdiales, a traditional period of mourning, including daily masses for the deceased pope
• Conclave begins: Expected between May 1–3, though the exact date will be set by the College of Cardinals
• New pope chosen: Typically within a few days after the conclave begins - recent conclaves have lasted between 1 and 5 days

Once a two-thirds majority is reached and the elected cardinal accepts, the new pope will be introduced with the traditional “Habemus Papam” announcement from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica.

🌎 Where to bet on next pope odds

Use Kalshi promo code 'SBR' to join Kalshi today and receive a $10 sign-up bonus. Kalshi is legal and regulated in most U.S. states and Washington, D.C.

Kalshi lists Pietro Parolin as having a 28% chance of becoming the new pope, with Luis Antonio Tagle (23%), and Peter Turkson (13%) next in line.

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